Bitcoin Breaks $68,000: A Turning Point for the Crypto Market?

Bitcoin is moving again. On Thursday morning it brushed $70,700, the first time traders have seen that level since the March 2023 frenzy. By Friday afternoon it had slipped back to about $68,100, still up more than nine percent for the week. The quick pop lit up group chats, finance Twitter, and even the nightly news. The big question now is whether this is the start of a longer climb or just another head-fake in a year that has already seen Bitcoin fall from $88,000 to $60,000 and back again.

What lit the fuse this time?

Three forces came together at once. First, the dollar softened after the latest jobs report missed expectations. A weaker dollar usually pushes traders toward scarce assets, and Bitcoin is the scarcest of them all. Second, stock markets were quietly staging their best five-day run since January. When equities feel safe again, some of that risk appetite leaks into crypto. Third, short sellers had piled up near the $60,000 level. When prices began to rise, those shorts covered in a hurry, adding rocket fuel to the move.

Options markets tell the same story. Open interest for calls out to March expiry grew 40 percent overnight, but the cost of protective puts also jumped. In plain English, traders are bullish enough to buy upside bets yet nervous enough to pay for insurance. That tension often precedes big swings.

The macro backdrop matters more than memes

Headlines love to blame “Bitcoin whales” or Elon Musk tweets, but the charts say macroeconomic data now drives more than 60 percent of daily variance. Last month investors dumped everything from AI stocks to crypto tokens amid fears that new chip-export rules might spark a tech cold war. Those fears cooled after both China and the United States signalled they would rather talk tariffs than impose sudden bans. Risk assets breathed a collective sigh of relief, and Bitcoin simply rode the wave.

Interest-rate expectations also shifted. Futures traders now price in two Federal Reserve cuts by September, double what they expected in early May. Lower yields make non-interest-bearing assets like gold and Bitcoin more attractive relative to bonds. Gold has already hit record highs above $2,430 an ounce; Bitcoin is playing catch-up.

Is the bear market officially over?

Not so fast. A single daily candle above $70,000 looks exciting, but Bitcoin has failed to hold that level three separate times since early 2024. Each failure triggered 20-30 percent pullbacks within weeks. Veteran traders therefore watch monthly closes more than daily spikes. If June ends with price solidly above $71,000, the long-term trend line from the 2022 low will officially turn upward for the first time in two years. Until then, caution remains the default.

Sentiment indicators echo that prudence. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index shot from 38 (“fear”) to 68 (“greed”) in five days. Historically, readings above 75 have marked local tops. We are not there yet, but the speed of the move suggests at least a short-term pullback is likely.

What the on-chain data says

Glassnode data show that long-term holders—wallets that have not moved coins for more than 155 days—stopped selling two weeks ago. That cohort had been off-loading roughly 4,000 Bitcoin per day since mid-April. The sudden halt removed a key source of overhead supply. Meanwhile, exchange reserves keep drifting downward. Roughly 1.92 million Bitcoin now sit on trading platforms, the lowest level since March 2018. Fewer coins on exchanges mean less ammunition for large sellers.

Mining metrics also improved. Hash rate, the collective computing power securing the network, set a fresh all-time high above 650 exahash per second. Higher hash rate implies miners are bullish enough to plug in new rigs despite the April halving that cut their rewards in half. Hash price—daily revenue per terahash—has stabilised around $55, giving miners breathing room without forcing mass sales of inventory.

Regulation: the elephant in the room

While charts and flows look constructive, regulatory clouds still loom. The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets framework starts full enforcement in December. In the United States, the SEC is expected to release fresh guidance on staking and decentralised finance before the November election. Any surprise language could trigger an instant 10-15 percent gap lower. On the flip side, the approval of spot Ether ETFs in May has opened the door for similar products on Solana and even meme coins. Greater access for retirement accounts could add a steady bid underneath the entire asset class.

For a deeper dive into how AI regulation intersects with crypto custody, see our recent piece on AI’s unseen impact on finance. It walks through scenarios where automated compliance tools could actually speed up approval times for new tokens.

Altcoins are joining the party, but with caveats

Ethereum rose 7 percent, Solana 9 percent, and even beleaguered Avalanche tacked on 12 percent. Yet the rally feels selective. Tokens without clear product-market fit continue to lag, while memecoins barely budged. This rotation from speculative small-caps to large-caps is typical of early bull phases, not late-stage manias. Institutional desks report that corporate treasuries are again asking for board papers on Bitcoin allocation, but they are shunning lesser-known Layer-1s after last year’s 90 percent drawdowns.

Stablecoin supply, a leading indicator for leveraged longs, grew by $6 billion in the past month. That may sound like a lot, but it pales beside the $30 billion increase seen during the Q1 2024 leg higher. In short, there is dry powder on the sidelines, but it has not yet been deployed.

What investors should watch next

The $71,000-$73,000 zone is the next major resistance cluster. A weekly close above it would open the path to the all-time high near $88,000. On the downside, $64,000 is the first support, followed by the psychological $60,000 line in the sand. A break below that would invalidate the nascent uptrend and likely send price back toward the 200-week moving average around $52,000.

Macro events will also steer momentum. The May CPI print is due next Tuesday, followed by the FOMC decision the week after. If inflation surprises to the upside, rate-cut bets will evaporate and Bitcoin could retrace swiftly. Conversely, a soft number paired with dovish rhetoric could send both stocks and crypto into another leg higher.

Practical takeaways for different profiles

Long-term savers should treat this move as a reminder to rebalance, not FOMO. If Bitcoin is already part of a diversified basket, trimming some after a 15 percent weekly gain is sensible. If you have zero exposure, dollar-cost averaging over the next six weeks beats chasing a green candle.

Active traders can watch the funding rate on perpetual swaps. A flip from positive to negative often marks short-term bottoms, while sustained premiums above 15 percent hint at overheating. Set alerts at the key levels mentioned above rather than staring at screens all day.

Finally, security hygiene never goes out of style. With price rising, phishing attempts rise too. Review our guide on Bitcoin Security 101 for practical steps on hardware wallets and multi-sig setups.

Bottom line

Bitcoin’s break above $68,000 is encouraging, but it is not yet the all-clear signal. Macro winds, regulatory headlines, and crowded positioning all argue for a bumpy road ahead. Still, the shift in sentiment is real: long-term holders are hoarding, miners are expanding, and institutions are asking better questions. If price can hold above $71,000 through the summer, the crypto market may finally leave the two-year bear behind. Until then, fasten your seatbelt and keep some cash on the sidelines—volatility is the one constant you can bank on.